The prevailing climate narrative is that the frequency of dust storms (Fig. 1) tends to increase with global warming (Fig. 2). But the empirical datasets from the Sahara-Sahel region (Fig. 3) reveal that the opposite trend is true for the period 1984-2023 (Fig. 4).
Dust storms
A dust storm, also called a sand storm, is a meteorological phenomenon common in arid and semi-arid regions. Dust storms arise when a gust front or other strong wind blows loose sand and dirt from a dry surface. Fine particles are transported by both saltation and suspension.
Dust storms commonly begin when:
· A dry cold front sweeps through.
· A thunderstorm collapses, creating a powerful downdraft.
· Strong pressure gradients generate high winds.
The most dramatic type—a haboob—forms when a thunderstorm’s downdraft hits desert soil and spreads outward like a giant broom, lifting a massive wall of dust. These dust storms can reduce visibility, disrupt transportation, and pose serious health risks. The arid regions (Fig. 1) of North Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia and China are the main terrestrial sources of airborne dust (Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dust_storm). A major desert dust storm can rise 1,500–2,000 m high and advance at 60–80 km/h, with some gust fronts exceeding 100 km/h. Visibility often drops to zero. They can stretch hundreds of kilometers, with rare events spanning up to 1,000 km.
Climate-Change Narrative
The World Health Organization (WHO, 2025) states that “Climate change contributes to desertification, which in turn may increase the frequency and spread of sand and dust storms. Recently, the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region and other areas have observed a surge in frequency, duration and intensity of sand and dust storms.” However, WHO (2025) did not explain the details of how Climate Change can increase the frequency of dust storms.
Empirical Data from North Africa
In a comprehensive regional study of dust storms in the Sahara-Sahel region of North Africa, Yeo et al. (2026) have documented that North African dust storms have undergone marked variability, reflecting complex interactions between regional climate processes and environmental change. These authors, using four decades (1984–2023) of visibility‐based observational records, have examined regional and seasonal trends in dust storm frequency across the Sahel and the Sahara, capturing their distinct dust dynamics.
Results reveal a significant decline in dust activity in both regions (Fig. 4), most pronounced during pre‐monsoon (MAM) and monsoon (JJA) seasons in the Sahel, and during post‐monsoon (SON) and dry season (DJF) in the Sahara. Integrating surface observations with local meteorology (precipitation, surface wind speed, vegetation) and climate indices (AMO, NAO, MEI), Yeo et al. (2026) find the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) as the primary driver, with region‐specific effects: in the Sahel, AMO‐driven warming and rainfall increase vegetation, suppressing dust; in the Sahara, AMO intensifies the Saharan Heat Low (SHL) and elevates temperatures, modulating dust through atmospheric stability and wind patterns. Local meteorology further differentiates responses, with precipitation and Leaf Area Index (LAI) dominating dust variability in the Sahel, while SHL strength and surface winds are most influential in the Sahara. By explicitly separating the Sahel and Sahara and integrating multiple drivers, this study provides a more spatially resolved understanding of dust–climate link and suggests continued declines in North African dust storm activity under future warming.
In light of the Climate Narrative, it is worth noting that “Desertification and dust productions are caused by low CO2 concentrations” (Palmer and Elias, 2016).
Implications
Clearly, available empirical datasets from North Africa do not validate the notion that Fossil Fuels and related CO2 emissions (as implied by the WHO narrative) are the cause of increasing frequency of dust storms. Dust storms are products of meteorological factors. In this context, humans are utterly impotent when it comes to controlling Forces of Nature (e.g., Dust storms, Cyclones, Tsunamis, Volcanoes, Meteorite Impacts, and Earthquakes). Humans can neither create nor stop Extreme Weather Events!
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Acknowledgements
I thank Angela Wheeler, Executive Director of the CO2 Coalition, for inviting me to present this contribution and Ethan Otte for helping. I also thank William Happer for valuable suggestions. I am grateful to Jean Shanmugam for her comments.
References
Christy, J. R. (2022). Data shows there’s no climate catastrophe looming – climatologist Dr J Christy debunks the narrative. BizNewsTv. https://www.youtube.com/watch? v=qJv1IPNZQao Retrieved May 2, 2023.
NOAA (2024). Global Monitoring Laboratory. Earth System Research Laboratories. Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2). https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/ Retrieved August 16, 2024
Palmer, M. and Elias, R. (2016). Modulation of ice ages via precession and dust-albedo feedbacks. Geoscience Frontiers, Volume 7, Issue 6, November 2016, Pages 891-909.
WHO (World Health Organization) (2025). Sand and Dust Storms. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/sand-and-dust-storms
Yeo, K., Oluleye, A., Yoroba, F., Hamidi, M., & Shao, Y. (2026). Trend of North African dust storms and potential link to climate change. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 131, e2025JD043630. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JD043630
Citation
Shanmugam, G., (2026). Frequency of Dust Storms: Increases due to Climate Change (WHO, 2025) vs Decreases due to Complex Factors in the Sahara-Sahel Region (Yeo et al., 2026)! 5 p. CO2 Coalition Substack. July 22, 2026
Dr. Ganapathy Shanmugam is a CO2 Coalition Member, a petroleum geologist, and a sedimentologist with more than 50 years of experience in geology and energy research. He earned a Ph.D. from the University of Tennessee and worked for Mobil (1978-2000) before becoming an independent consultant. He has published extensively on deep-water sediments and petroleum reservoirs. His 317 published works on ResearchGate have reached 250,518 (over one-quarter million) reads from 32 countries as of July 19, 2026. He has also lectured and conducted workshops around the world.
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Hi Ganapathy, the correct reference is
Ellis, R. & Palmer, M. Modulation of ice ages via precession and dust-albedo feedbacks. Geoscience Frontiers 7, 891–909 (2016).
It's worth noting - as E&P do - the dust increase during ice ages is mainly due fewer plants, mainly due to lower CO2 and lower overall precipitation. In a warmer climate there's more evaporation and rainfall; in a CO2 rich atmosphere plants need less moisture and grow larger, tying the soil down with their roots, and preventing the soil from drying out with their foliage.
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